Enhancing Competition in Cross-Border Markets of the EAEU: Insights from the BRICS+ Experience

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Introduction BRICS+ has established itself as an international institution of economic integration among dynamically developing countries, proving successful in all respects: it has significantly strengthened their weight in global trade, optimized trade balances, and systematically improved the economic performance of partner states. BRICS+ has became the first association of its kind, bringing together equal, fast-growing economies in a mutually beneficial format and providing them with independence from the developed countries (the G7). Unlike earlier integration projects such as NAFTA and the EU, which included developed states, or numerous post-colonial African unions under external supervision, BRICS+ represents an autonomous framework of cooperation among emerging economies. On this solid institutional foundation, and replicating much of the BRICS+ success over the past decade, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has pursued its integration agenda as a union of dynamically developing states with a clear geographical focus. In the current context of economic deglobalization and the expansion of customs unions, the EAEU requires scholarly support for its further development. The Union possesses significant yet largely untapped potential, the realization of which is complicated by the limited applicability of earlier theoretical and methodological frameworks in today’s transformed global economic environment. Within customs unions, maintaining effective competition in cross-border markets plays a crucial role. After decades of global free trade under the auspices of the WTO [1-3], when the state of competition in cross-border markets largely determined export performance and economic growth, developed countries have revived protectionist practices, which are either detrimental or inaccessible to most emerging economies. In this regard, the recent experience of BRICS+ is particularly instructive for the EAEU. In recent years, BRICS+ has managed both to expand intra-bloc trade and to preserve openness to external trade, even under the pervasive influence of sanctions. For these reasons, the present study is timely and relevant: its purpose is to identify the prospects for improving competition in the cross-border markets of the EAEU, drawing on the BRICS+ experience. Materials and Methods The sample of this study comprises 10 BRICS+ countries and 5 EAEU countries. Since Russia is a member of both groupings, the final sample includes 14 countries in total. To capture the most recent experience associated with the sanctions period in international trade, the temporal scope of the research covers the years 2023 and 2025 (using data as of the beginning of each year). In the existing scholarly literature, two key indicators are most often used to assess the state of competition in cross-border markets: (1) the speed of export shipments, with statistical data available from the World Bank [4]; and (2) the favorability of customs and tariff conditions, measured by the net barter terms of trade index (where higher values of the index indicate more favorable conditions for the development of foreign trade) [5]. Drawing on the literature [6-8] that examines empirical practices of international trade and customs unions under today’s sanctions regime, this article puts forward the hypothesis that between 2023 and 2025 the state of competition in cross-border markets exerts only a moderate impact on exports and economic growth. To test this hypothesis, regression analysis is employed using the statistics presented in Table, in order to assess: (1) the effect of competition in cross-border markets on the share of exports in GDP [9]; and (2) the effect of the share of exports in GDP on the rate of economic growth. Competition in Cross-Border Markets, Exports, and Economic Growth of the EAEU and BRICS+ in 2023 and 2025 Country Export shipment time, days Net barter terms of trade index, base year 2015 = 100 Export share of GDP, goods and services, % Economic growth rate, % 2023 2025 2023 2025 2023 2025 2023 2025 BRICS+ Brazil 3.00 5.00 114.50 117.20 19.63 18.01 3.02 3.40 Egypt 2.00 2.00 118.70 110.20 15.09 16.38 6.59 2.40 India 4.00 3.00 81.40 87.50 23.25 21.18 7.60 6.48 Indonesia 3.00 2.00 124.90 108.30 24.50 22.18 5.31 5.03 Iran 2.00 3.00 131.80 109.00 26.82 22.90 3.78 3.04 China 3.00 2.00 89.50 90.20 20.30 20.02 3.13 4.98 United Arab Emirates (UAE) 2.00 2.00 122.60 111.10 103.81 108.61 7.51 3.76 Ethiopia 14.00 60.00 100.50 103.10 8.24 5.55 5.32 7.32 WORLD ECONOMY 13 Abdyldaeva A.B. Enhancing Competition in Cross-Border Markets of the EAEU: Insights from the BRICS+ Experience Country group Country Export shipment time, days Net barter terms of trade index, base year 2015 = 100 Export share of GDP, goods and services, % Economic growth rate, % 2023 2025 2023 2025 2023 2025 2023 2025 BRICS+ South Africa 3.00 2.00 118.10 113.80 33.37 31.85 1.91 0.58 Russia 5.00 3.00 135.50 114.60 27.72 21.92 -1.44 4.34 EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union) Armenia 7.00 7.00 50.22 76.35 12.60 5.90 98.60 103.20 Belarus 2.00 2.00 63.05 65.06 -4.66 4.01 105.90 124.00 Kazakhstan 3.00 10.00 41.57 34.51 3.20 4.80 144.40 124.60 Kyrgyzstan 2.00 1.00 107.80 107.20 46.34 36.89 8.97 9.04 Source: compiled by Aikumush B. Abdyldaeva based on data from the World Bank Group. To assess the impact of sanctions on competition in cross-border markets, exports, and economic growth in the EAEU and BRICS+, the 2025 indicator values from Table (reflecting the stage of adaptation to sanctions) are compared, using trend analysis, with their 2023 levels (the initial stage of sanctions). Based on the identified regression relationships among the indicators, a forecast is developed for export dynamics and the acceleration of economic growth in the EAEU through 2027, under the assumption of improved competition conditions in the Union’s cross- border markets. Results and Discussion The trend analysis of the statistics presented in Table revealed changes in the state of competition in cross-border markets, as well as in the exports and economic growth of both the EAEU and BRICS+ in 2025 compared to 2023. Figure 1. Changes in Competition in Cross-Border Markets, Exports, and Economic Growth of the EAEU and BRICS+ in 2025 Compared to 2023, % Source: created by Aikumush B. Abdyldaeva. As shown in Figure 1, the export shipment time in the EAEU slowed by 21.05% due to global deglobalization, while in BRICS+ it increased by 104.88%. However, owing to the development of these customs unions, tariff conditions for their 14 WORLD ECONOMY BRICS+: Current Agenda, 2025, 1(1), 12-17 trade improved by 3.14% in the EAEU and by 6.37% in BRICS+. Despite this, the share of exports in GDP declined by 92.04% in the EAEU and by 4.67% in BRICS+. At the same time, the economic growth rate accelerated in the EAEU by 2007.90%, whereas in BRICS+ it contracted by 3.30%. The regression analysis of the statistics presented in Table 1 made it possible to derive the following econometric model of the impact of competition in cross- border markets on exports and economic growth in the EAEU and BRICS+ for 2023 and 2025: (1) Model (1) demonstrated that a one-day acceleration in export shipment time increases the export share of GDP by 0.5743%, while a one-point improvement in customs and tariff conditions raises the export share of GDP by 0.2408%. Furthermore, a 1% increase in the export share of GDP accelerates economic growth by 0.0035% per year. The forecast of exports and economic growth through 2027, under the assumption of improved competition in the EAEU’s cross-border markets, is presented in Figure 2. Figure 2. Forecast of Exports and Economic Growth through 2027 under Improved Competition in the EAEU Cross-Border Markets Source: created by Aikumush B. Abdyldaeva. As shown in Figure 2, with an acceleration of export shipment time by 78.26% (to 1 day) and an improvement in customs and tariff conditions by 8.61% (to 124.60, as observed in Kazakhstan in 2025), the export share of GDP in the EAEU will increase by 13.54% (to 53.30%). This, in turn, will ensure an acceleration of the EAEU’s economic growth rate by 0.37% (to 5.64% per year) over the period up to 2027. Summarizing the results of the study, it can be concluded that, unlike earlier works [1-3] reflecting the experience of international trade under the free-trade regime promoted by the WTO, in today’s environment of global economic deglobalization, the state of competition in cross-border markets, while still WORLD ECONOMY 15 Abdyldaeva A.B. Enhancing Competition in Cross-Border Markets of the EAEU: Insights from the BRICS+ Experience important, plays a much less decisive role in determining exports and economic growth. In this way, the article has confirmed the proposed hypothesis and contributed to the literature [6-8] by revealing previously unexplored causal relationships between the state of competition in cross-border markets and the conduct of international trade, as well as the functioning of the EAEU and BRICS+ customs unions under current sanction-driven realities. Conclusions Thus, the study has produced several key findings. First, it identified the contradictory effects of sanctions on competition in cross-border markets of the EAEU and BRICS+ in 2023 and 2025, reflected in slower export shipments but improved customs and tariff conditions, as well as in declining exports accompanied by accelerated economic growth in the EAEU and slowed growth in BRICS+. Second, it developed a model capturing the impact of competition in cross-border markets on exports and economic growth in the EAEU and BRICS+ in 2023 and 2025. Third, based on this model, a forecast was constructed for export dynamics and the acceleration of economic growth through 2027, contingent upon improved competition in the EAEU’s cross-border markets. The proposed model and forecast are expected to assist the EAEU in drawing on the successful BRICS+ experience of adapting to sanctions and in enhancing the accuracy of international trade planning through 2027.

About the authors

Aikumush B. Abdyldaeva

Eurasian Economic Commission

Author for correspondence.
Email: aikumush8@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1160-4323

Advisor to the Division for Handling Cases on Violation of General Competition Rules, Department of Transport and Infrastructure

3/5 Smolensky Blvd, bldg 1, Moscow, 119121, Russian Federation

References

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